With François Bayrou’s days as Prime Minister seemingly numbered, the Polymarket platform gives him only an 8% chance of retaining his position in September. We take stock of the situation.
François Bayrou is not popular on the Polymarket crypto betting platform
Among the many bets available on the Polymarket prediction market platform, one of them concerns François Bayrou. Given the Prime Minister’s near-zero popularity rating and his speeches and actions, which exasperate many, the bet is on his possible departure:
This market will be settled as “Yes” if François Bayrou is no longer serving as Prime Minister for a given period between August 24 and September 30, 2025, at 11:59 p.m. ET. Otherwise, this market will be settled as “No.” The announcement of François Bayrou’s resignation/dismissal before the closing date of this market will immediately result in a “Yes” outcome, regardless of the effective date of the announced resignation/dismissal.
Thus, 92% of participants believe that François Bayrou will no longer be Prime Minister by September 30:
In concrete terms, François Bayrou’s adventure at Matignon could already come to an end on September 8, as he has called for a vote of confidence in the government, in accordance with Article 49.1 of the Constitution. This procedure consists of asking the National Assembly to grant or withhold its confidence in the Prime Minister. If the vote fails, the government will fall and François Bayrou will leave office.
Many political parties on both the left and the right have already announced their intention to vote against the Prime Minister, and now it is a matter of waiting a little over a week.
