The price of Bitcoin is under geopolitical pressure at the start of this week, but technically speaking, the annual recovery phase isn’t invalidated as long as the $90,000 support level holds. Read Vincent Ganne’s analysis.
Bitcoin under geopolitical pressure
The price of Bitcoin has been struggling to recover since the beginning of the year, peaking at $98,000 before falling back due to ongoing geopolitical tensions. Despite everything, BTC has been on an upward trend since the end of last November, but this recovery has been slow, jerky, and not very strong compared to the performance of gold and silver in the precious metals segment.
In terms of timing, this first quarter of 2026 is very similar to the “dead cat bounce” seen in the previous bear market cycle in 2022. If the comparison continues to hold true, then it is likely that the BTC recovery is not yet over. For this to happen, it is imperative to maintain support at $90,000. This week, starting Monday, January 19, is very busy in terms of fundamentals, and BTC should make its technical choice quickly. (Geopolitics around Greenland, World Economic Forum in Davos where Trump is scheduled to speak, US PCE inflation and Clarity Act).
Here are my technical observations for believing in further recovery by the end of February, as long as the $90,000 support level holds:
- If the dead cat bounce (or bear market rally) pattern of the previous cyclical bear market repeats itself, then Bitcoin should be able to reach its 200-day moving average in February ($105,000);
- Global liquidity as a leading indicator remains favorable until March;
- The momentum (annual rate of change) of this global liquidity has just reached a new high, which has always been a bullish factor for BTC since the low point at the end of 2022.
A bear market rally that is not yet over
From a strictly technical perspective, the current market structure remains consistent with a continuation of the recovery, despite high volatility. Bitcoin is trading in a short- to medium-term upward channel, with a succession of rising lows and highs since mid-December. As long as the $90,000 support level (the 50-day moving average) holds, BTC has a good chance of continuing its winter rebound.
Historically, in dead cat bounce phases, the market has often attempted a return to the 200-day moving average before deciding either on a sustained bullish reintegration or a failure followed by a new corrective phase to end the cyclical bear market.
In addition, the correlation with global liquidity remains a key element of macro analysis. The historical time lag between lows in global money supply growth and lows in Bitcoin suggests that the crypto market could still benefit from tailwinds in the coming weeks. As long as this liquidity continues to grow and the major support level of $90,000 is maintained, the scenario of a continued dead cat bounce towards the $100,000–$105,000 range remains credible between now and the end of February.
In summary, the context remains fragile but constructive from a technical standpoint, and the market still appears to be engaged in an unfinished technical recovery rather than an immediate bearish reversal.
