Bitcoin may have bottomed out last week, although confirmation on the daily time frame is still needed to validate this. However, the structure forming on the lower time frames remains encouraging, providing a solid support zone for price movement.
The end of the US budget deadlock is imminent
On Monday, November 10, 2025, at 12:44 p.m., Bitcoin is trading at around $106,000, after rebounding at the end of last week.
The US shutdown is entering its 40th day since the budget impasse began in the United States. Pressure is mounting, but the latest information suggests that a consensus may be reached in the coming days.
In this context, the markets could regain their momentum, with the expected resumption of macroeconomic data publication.
The end of the budget deadlock, although only a return to normal, would remove a significant burden on the markets by dispelling some of the uncertainty currently weighing on the state of the economy.
However, this situation remains a double-edged sword: sudden adjustments could occur if the next data contradicts expectations, which are currently pointing to a further rate cut in December.
On the Bitcoin derivatives markets, compulsive buyers seem to have calmed down, the drop below $100,000 has had its effect, and now the bias seems to be shifting towards sellers.
Consolidation phases seem to be an opportunity for sellers to position themselves, and buyers are few and far between despite prices rising steadily.
A new equilibrium has been found, which seems to point to a calmer phase in Bitcoin’s price action.
Bitcoin’s performance indicators confirm a slight short-term rebound against the dollar; against Ethereum, a balance seems to be settling in with variations of less than 2% across all time horizons.
The rebound is taking shape, but something is missing…
Bitcoin is in a situation where the weekly, 3-day, and daily trends are now bearish. This is not a very comfortable situation, but it is a configuration that we have already seen during major consolidation phases in this cycle.
In September 2024 and April 2025, Bitcoin absorbed liquidity below its 50-week moving average while posting mostly bearish trends.
In this situation, it seems logical to consider shifting one’s own bias to the downside and considering short positions.
This increases the risk of seeing a future peak lower than the previous one, confirming the continuation of a trend that will only be called into question on a weekly basis if the $116,300 mark is crossed.
For those looking to buy, it will be necessary to monitor the daily time frame, which could give early signs of a recovery while offering faster invalidation levels.
On this time scale, the price still needs time to develop a reliable structure on which to build.
However, a first positive signal could be given if the price breaks through the $107,000 to $108,000 zone, which, if unsuccessful, could send prices back into the $100,000 to $104,000 consolidation zone, where we could build a new higher low than the previous one, thus forming a new solid base.
However, if BTC finds the strength to break through this first zone, then the next challenge lies between $110,500 and $112,000, a key level on several time frames that will need to be recaptured to pave the way for $120,000.
Any idea of a bullish recovery would have to be postponed if Bitcoin were to break through last week’s low ($98,900). A return to the H4 structure that has been building since Wednesday, November 5 ($100,000 to $104,000) cannot be ruled out in order to form the daily low mentioned above.
We can also envisage a new liquidity grab below the November 4 low, but in this case, the reaction will have to be swift and show the presence of massive buyers. This reaction was lacking at the beginning of last week.
To end on a positive note, we can observe the 4-hour structure currently forming on Bitcoin, which shows a clear desire to stem the current decline by realigning bullish highs and lows. This construction could be the starting point (in an area of major interest) for a significant rebound.
In summary, Bitcoin may have reached its low point, although confirmation on the daily time frame is needed to be certain. However, the structure developing on the smaller time frame is encouraging, such as the absorption of liquidity below the 50-week moving average on the weekly chart.
So, do you think BTC could reach $150,000? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments.
Have a great day, and see you next week for a new Bitcoin analysis.
