Overnight, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) nearly reached $76,000 following a new uptrend. What can we say about this move?
Bitcoin (BTC) Flirts with $76,000 Before Correcting
Overnight, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) nearly hit $76,000 in an attempt to break out of its current trading range. Despite a subsequent correction, the asset is still trading at $74,000, up 1.2% over the past 24 hours, but more importantly, up 12.2% since last week:
BTC price (daily data)
As a result, we are now at the upper end of the range we identified last week, which is between $60,000 and $74,000. At this point, a clear breakout from this range will be necessary to hope for a genuine upward trend that extends beyond the scope of this technical rebound.
On the fundamentals side, nothing seems to justify the current movement, other than the idea that the market is catching its breath after the debacle of the past four months. Meanwhile, our colleagues at CoinDesk have identified the closing of put options at $60,000 on the derivatives market, forcing market makers to rebalance their positions by buying BTC.
In addition, investors appear to be adopting a wait-and-see approach as the U.S. Federal Reserve begins its FOMC meeting this Tuesday, which will lead to an interest rate decision on Wednesday. According to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, there is currently a 99.1% probability that interest rates will remain at their current level of 3.5% to 3.75%.
At the same time, a comparison can be made with other investment sectors. For example, gold is trading around $5,000 per ounce, following a 10.34% decline from its all-time high (ATH) on January 29. As for oil, prices remain at particularly high levels, with WTI at $95 and Brent at $100. As for stock indices, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq have risen by 1.01% and 1.22%, respectively, while in Europe, the CAC 40 and the DAX are currently up 0.51% and 0.23%.
Returning to the BTC price, we’ve observed some inflows from traditional finance since last week, specifically $968.95 million into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, whose assets under management have risen to $95.77 billion—a high not seen since February 3.
Despite the ongoing rally, let’s recall our warnings from last week: the scenario of the bear market bottom having already been reached would be entirely unprecedented, both in terms of magnitude and duration. Therefore, this should be kept in mind when taking a long position, bearing in mind that while today’s prices are attractive from a long-term perspective, new lows could still be reached in the coming weeks and/or months.
