On October 6, 2025, Bitcoin hit a new high of around $126,000. Since then, analysts have been divided on the question: has the bull run that began after the April 2024 halving already come to an end? Here is Vincent Ganne’s technical analysis of BTC.
A cycle that falls within the historical average—nothing more
An analysis of the timing of previous cycles provides some interesting insights. On average, the period between a halving and the end of the cycle ranges from 526 to 546 days. However, the 2025 peak occurred 534 days after the 2024 peak, which corresponds almost exactly to this average.
If we look at the overall duration of the cycle—approximately 1,438 days since the previous peak—it is also in line with the cycles of 2016 and 2020, which had similar durations.
Thus, from a temporal and statistical perspective, the scenario of Bitcoin’s price having already peaked is consistent: a cycle within the average timeframe with a very average overall performance. In absolute terms, this amounts to 1,055 days if the cycle ended on Monday, October 6, which is slightly less than the two previous cycles.
Market structure remains solid as long as major support levels hold
From a technical perspective, however, the underlying uptrend has not yet been called into question. The Bitcoin price is still trading above its 50-week moving average, a historically significant threshold for distinguishing bull markets from bear markets.
In previous market phases, a break below this moving average confirmed a bear market. Today, this support level is near the current price, so this week’s technical close will be crucial.
A major upward trend line, drawn from the lows of 2024, also converges on this same price zone. As long as this structure remains intact, the current phase can be interpreted as a pause in the uptrend rather than a sustained reversal.
However, a clear break below these major support levels would be the ultimate confirmation that BTC has indeed been in a bear market since reaching $126,000 on Monday, October 6.
Conclusion: A potential peak, but not yet confirmed
In summary, the cycle’s timeline suggests that the peak of this bull run may already have been reached. However, no major technical signals have yet confirmed a definitive reversal.
As long as Bitcoin holds the range between $98,000 and $100,000, the long-term trend remains positive. Only in the event of a clear weekly technical break below the 50-week moving average would the market truly enter a prolonged downtrend.
