In 2026, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) is more likely to fall below $45,000 than to rise above $120,000 again. A look at investors’ predictions.
Which direction will Bitcoin (BTC) take in 2026?
For several weeks now, we have been expressing our concerns about a potential bear market. Over the weekend, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) fell sharply once again, dragging the rest of the cryptocurrency market down with it.
By breaking below the $85,000 to $95,000 range—which we have highlighted on several occasions—the scenario of a bear market now seems inevitable.
Now, the pressing question is: how low will prices fall?
For now, the low stands at $74,660, according to TradingView data, and, beyond technical analysis, prediction markets can provide a good indication of investor sentiment.
On X, Kalshi’s account states that analysts “predict Bitcoin will hit a low of $59,000.”
On Polymarket, traders believe it is “now more likely that Bitcoin will fall below $45,000 than rebound to $120,000.”
In fact, the associated prediction market on Polymarket currently assigns a 26% probability that BTC will reach $120,000 this year, compared to a 31% probability that it will fall below $45,000:
Polymarket prediction market on the BTC price in 2026
Beyond the bear market low—which could indeed be reached this year, or hypothetically may have already been reached—past experience has also shown that BTC tends to go through periods of consolidation before rebounding sustainably.
Thus, this inability to accurately predict the market can lead to dollar-cost averaging (DCA) strategies, which allow you to smooth out your average purchase price.
